NEXT-GEN GAMES AN ENDANGERED SPECIES?

Expect much fewer games on next-gen consoles, warns developer, as development times prepare to shoot through the roof

13:16 The number of games releasing on the likes of Xbox 2 and PS3 are likely to become less and less, an industry developer has warned, claiming that technological advancements and demands for more complex software will lead to projects requiring at least two years preparation before they can enter development.
" We have the opportunity to elevate games to be the tenth art," said Tameem Antoniades, the co-founder of Just Add Monsters at last week' s European Game Developers Conference. " [However] the expectations of players and publishers are rocketing. With every new generation, people want more realism."

Then - referencing the nine-moths his Cambridge-based team has already spent prototyping a next-gen samurai slasher entitled Heavenly Swords - he added : " We found that everything takes a very long time to make."

Antoniades' warning echoes similar comments recently made by EA' s vice president Jeff Brown, who told BBC News that due to a rise in development costs, companies have to invest extra time into ensuring that their products are good enough to sell.

It is a progression that is also likely to see a reduction in the number of independent developers unable to recover from just a single failed risk.

" I don' t see the retail price increasing as games are already expensive," added Antoniades, allaying initial fears that the rise in costs would be reflected at retail. " In the past, sales of 500,000 units would be a hit. Now you need to sell millions.

" In the next generation there will be far fewer publishers, sinking their money into far fewer games. I believe that most independent developers will disappear, either through going bust or due to merger or acquisition."

Of course, this is a trend that is already being witnessed with the current crop of consoles. Galleon developer Confounding Factor is suspected to have closed after spending literally years developing the Xbox game, while developer/publishers like Rage went bankrupt after big investments such as David Beckham Soccer failed to recuperate sufficient revenue at retail.

Still, as the famous saying goes, it' s quality not quantity, and while fewer games may be mooted on the next batch of home consoles, as long as the quality is sky-high, should us gamers really be complaining? Of course, a big concern is that of originality and innovation, which may be sacrificed in favour of big sequels and licenses. Plus, a monopolisation is rarely good for any industry.

How the gaming world pans over the two next years or so will make for very interesting reading indeed.


Stephen Daultrey