I think the success of Blu-Ray relies heavily on the backing it has in the industry and how cheap manufacturing costs are. Doesn' t matter how " technologically superior" something is. If it' s expensive to manufacture, it' s expensive for consumers and consumers won' t buy it.
At the moment, Blu-Ray has a fair amount of support behind it. Roughly equal to HD-DVD. But there are a couple of key points where it could spell trouble:
Blu-Ray requires a complete manufacturing overhaul in order to be produced. This means current DVD manufactuing companies have to spend millions purchasing new equipment in order to adopt it. HD-DVD is a natural evolution of DVD and requires very little modification to existing equipment. Cutting costs is a high priority in the business world so there is a strong chance that Blu-Ray could be held up before it even gets to us!
Another point is both Intel and Microsoft have shown support for HD-DVD. When both these huge companies have a hand in things, it could spell trouble for Blu-Ray. They have a massive amount of influence in the industry.
I guess another valid point is the very name. Consumers like the HD prefix on HD-DVD. They are already familiar with DVD and are getting to understand and recognize HD (high definition) so consumers will natually head towards the familiar. Blu-Ray on the other hand sounds like some sort of space age laser beam that the consumer won' t take a second look at. Understanding the consumer is a very important aspect and currently HD-DVD has an advantage here.
But we won' t know until they' re actually here so it could still go either way. But remember Sony have a poor record of launching proprietary formats. Betamax, MiniDisc, Sony Memory Stick, HiFD all failed to grab the mass consumers. It really is terrible. So if they stick to the strategies they' ve been using all along, they' ll probably fail again.
< Message edited by UnluckyOne -- 10 Jul 06 14:05:51 >