No, i think it' ll be closer in Europe and the US than ever, but i think Microsoft can forget Japan. 360 will definately sell better once games like Blue Dragon are released but it won' t sell like Revolution or PS3 will.
The only thing that would hit Sony hard in Japan is if Microsoft got VF5 exclusive, which is very very unlikely!
Sony are going to suffer this gen. They make most of their profit from their consoles and gaming licences, but PS3' s userbase is not going to be as huge as PS2' s and i highly doubt PS3 will have as many games as 360 during it' s lifespan. That and Revolution being what it is (and the massive worldwide success of DS) are really going to tighten the screws and put Sony under a lot of pressure.
Sony haven' t done what they should as Gangsta pointed out, but it' s not like they could have held off anyway because not only would it have been a sign of weakness (or percieved so), in that people would think Sony didn' t have anything to counter Microsoft with but not launching PS3 this year would have allowed Microsoft' s marketshare to grow even more rapidly than it actually now will.
I also think Sony have messed up with using a Blu-Ray drive in the console too. I think it will cause more problems than it' s worth. I' m talking about increased development costs (that' ll piss both developers AND publishers off), ...increased development time, technical issues (like longer loading times) and increased game prices (i fully expect a $10/£10 rise on 360 game prices, blamed on Blu-Ray).
If it launches at a stupid price (which will look even worse because Revolution will be launched around the same time and will be much much cheaper), then i don' t think they' ll get off to a great start...