RE: PS3- The end of Sony' s dominance?
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Oct 05, 2005 20:53
It possibly is, however, I do not think that it will be easy - on the other hand, it will be a welcome change of pace. When SEGA dethroned Nintendo, as gamers we all benefitted. When Sony dethroned SEGA, yet again as gamers we benefitted (except for that episode with telling lies about PS2 being able to do Toy Story graphics and using them to destroy Dreamcast - the loss of Dreamcast was a loss for gamers everywhere). The point though is that in this business, change is good. We change systems every 4/5 years bacause change is good. That said, the PS2 has been one of the worst systems in gaming history - right after the N64. No change, no good. The system has had its great moments (I have the games in my collection as proof), but overall, from its launch, it has been a colossal letdown. Part of this problem is the stagnation of Sony, which has to a certain extinct sent stagnation throughout the entire industry - people tend to follow the leaders (ever notice how all the male executives in a given nation, will change their haircuts to match that of that nation' s leader within a year of election?) Humans follow leaders, until we get something that we percieve as better to come along, it' s simply what we do. Sony stagnated, and as a result the industry stagnated with it.
In all this, the Xbox has been a much needed breath of fresh air and fresh ideas. Not initially, but it grew as the company became more successful at making console software and spread its wings; the 3rd parties followed suit. And most gamers (especially the Western hardcore and ' urban' gamer) only in the last couple years have begone to realize this and respond positively to it. Right now, like it or not, the Microsoft machine is just beginning to get rolling; it' s just beginning to catch traction and its picking up momentum, full steam ahead. Here in the States, where people openly and publically expouse hate for Windows, are beginning to love and adore the Xbox - it' s the weirdest thing, but it is happening all the same. Whenever I go to retailers, it is most likely the Xbox they are out of stock of, than any of the the three consoles (followed by the DS). There can be no doubt that Microsoft is on a role and intend to parlay that roll into the next generation. Because of it' s numerous multimedia applications, the Xbox 360 is quickly becoming the next-gen system of choice amoung audio/video-files where that sector overlaps with gaming. And then there is the matter of software. This is extremely important and a lot of people, myself included felt that Ed Fries at MGS did a fantastic job. I mean, in less than a few years, they went from Azurik (super yuck) to Jade Empire (one of the best RPGs in history). Seeing him leave was a pain, and there was considerable worry about where Shane Kim would take the software - immediately he made some changes which pissed more than a few gamers off. He cancelled True Fantasy Online, and pulled the publishing plugs on Stranger' s Wrath and Psychonauts. He made statements that at the time made no sense, that the new focus going forward for MGS was not on making lots of games, but creating exclusive content for the Xbox system(s) that would drive the hardware and inspire 3rd parties to do so as well - in essence, the new direction of MGS was to create more games that would succeed at the same level as the Halo franchise (over 15 million copies sold and $600 million profitted). Well what could possibly be more true to that statement than games like TFO, Stranger' s Wrath and Psychonauts? The two of the three that eventually made it to retail, were both top notch games. Unfortunately, the both sold like azz - neither game made their money back. Then X05 and MGS finally began to show off what they have in mind when Shane Kim made those statements a year and a half ago. Kameo, Perfect Dark Zero, and PGR3 are already million sellers - guaranteed. But add to that (for 2006 - no mention yet of holiday 2006 and beyond) Gears of War, Too Human, Mass Effect and Crackdown. And Shane Kim' s vision of a new and improved MGS begins to make a helluva lot of sense. Each of these games, and the developers creating, have solid opportunities of truly being the next Halo. I think that a lot of gamers have already pretty much made up their minds that GOW is the next Halo, but I feel that MGS is taking things a bit further and seriously working with some of the top game developers across the entire industry to create a series of games that as successful and as marketable as Halo or GTA; and that is important. With each and everyone of these titles being system exclusive, we finally return to an age in gaming that has not happened since 1994 - when first party exclusive content, drove a system. If you look at Sony, to this day, outside of Gran Turismo, Jakk and Daxter and a handful of others, they have no exclusive content to move hardware - all their superior exclusives (Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, etc.) come from the 3rd parties, and eventually as we learned with Square dropping Nintendo, 3rd parties will always follow where the most money is. True right now that is with Sony, but the question is, can M$ equal or trump Sony in this department over the course of the next generation? When the marketshare numbers begin looking more like 60/40 splits, that' s when 3rd party exclusives begin to disappear. After that, the only real reasons left for gamers to continue to buy your platform is for your 1st party exclusives - this is the #1 reason why Nintendo is still around, their first party library is so strong and varied, that they always manage to sell enough systems and more importantly, software to remain one of Japan' s most profitable companies (in the last decade, they have even been honored on at least 5 occasions for this success by the Japanese government - despite having lost major marketshare to Sony and now Microsoft - they just simple sell enough software to stay grossly in the black).
MGS is betting big on 1st party exclusives, as well they should. As we learned from the GTA and Resident Evil 4 examples, the only true exclusive you have is the one you have 100% ownership over - despite exclusivities, 3rd parties are still free to take their titles where they want to as long as they either honor the complete terms of the contract or if they think that it' s more profitable to break contract than to remain under contract - that' s just simply how business works. By the end game, I think MGS' investment is going to pay off. More often than not, they are going to turn out games that rival Halo/GTA in popularity and sales. This in turn is going to move systems, which in turns, moves more software. Which in turns increases support from both retailers and 3rd parties, which in turn increases sale in both hardware and software.
Ultimately, by the end of the generation, I honestly see Microsoft and Sony positioned neck and neck in the marketplace. Sony has their name which will solidly continue to carry them - despite their inability to actually drive any true innovation. Sony will ultimately be handed their marketshare for no other reason than the fact they that they are Sony. Microsoft on the other hand, will have to actually earn (or purchase), it' s marketshare. But they are already making all the right steps to do just that. They have a truly remarkable machine that does so much more than just games; while at the same time, not compromising games for the sake of doing something else (like the PS2 did just to have a DVD player inside). They have the most solid online strategy that I have ever seen in over 20-years as a gamer (I' ve been gaming online since around 1982 when the only things out there were text-based MUDDs, and in all that time, nothing, and I truly mean nothing has even come close to rivaling Xbox Live (XBL) - and on November 22, Xbox Live is getting x10 better). Now that broadband is becoming widely accepted at all levels of society globabally and now that ultra-broadband is in full rollout stage across most of the developed world, online is the future for not only gaming, but entertainment. Right now, there are only two devices on the whole planet prepared to take on the task of fully exploiting the future of online entertainment - both are either owned or dominated by Microsoft. One is the PC that (unless you are running linux, OSX or BSD on) you are reading this post on right now, and the other will see it' s worldwide launch in November. XBL and wLAN will be the tie that binds these two instruments inextricably to each other. MGS understands the need to create internally produced and owned, exclusive software that will become phenomanons that will drive the hardware, and are following through with creating said software. M$ marketing teams have already proven their worth. They have helped Xbox go from zero to 40% marketshare (North America) 20% marketshare (globally) in under four years. M$ marketing departments are only going to turn up the heat moving forward. All of these things combined, plus a few things that I did not mention, are going to allow M$ to claw its way to an equal market footing as Sony over the next few years - after that, Sony really has to start to worry. Huge mistakes that Sony has been able to get away with in the past, simply because they had no serious competition, will quickly knock them into 2nd place, making similer mistakes against a competitor who is running neck and neck with them. Once the magic spot, of equal marketshare is reached with both companies, there will be little room for error amoung either.
The ultimate winner from it all will be me. That' s right dammit, I said me. I' m going to own all three systems (and any other game system that comes out too). And in an environment where you have two extremely powerful contenders, one desperately attempting to hold on to the top spot, and the other determined to take him down, then end product resulting from the battle is some of the best software that gaming has ever known. The last time anything this fortunate every happened to gaming was during the 16-bit era, and gaming truly hit it' s epitomy during the great battle of Nintendo and SEGA. Those of you too young to remember, or who were not yet gamers, you don' t have a damned clue just how good gaming can get - but starting November 22, you will begin to. Next fall (spring in Japan . . . perhaps), when Sony releases PS3, the battle is going to heat up so fast, everyone is going to feel all tingly and we' re gonna get some of the best software ever, if not the best software ever as a result. As stated before, once you hit that magic zone where the market is a 60/40 split, the sparks will fly and everyone will have to bring their " A" game, or go home. As gamers, especially multi-console gamers, expect to be broke, broke and broker by Xmas 2007. You' re going to have to start taking mortages out on boby parts just to keep up with all the good software - it' s gonna be great and I been waiting more than 10-years for it to happen again.
And all the while in the background, we are still going to have Nintendo, currently the most innovative game company in the world, bringing their " A" game too, plus more new ways to play than you can dream about. We are truly about to enter into a golden age in gaming, and for those of us who are not jaded or biased, those of us who open their hearts and minds to the possibilities, we are the true victors.