http://au.gamespot.com/news/6166286.aspx?tag=latestnews;title;0

no

All it needs is a flood of third party games and it will do a ps2 (i mainstream appeal). At the moment thats not happening but with the Wiis extremely good run and third parties getting some decent returns form Wii games its only a matter of time (Apparently getting your hands on Wii Dev kits is difficult at the moment, that can be seen as a good sign).

WIth its price and uniqueness compared to the other consoles i still optimistic this can be achieved with the proper conditions - lots of third party support and decent online. Japan is looking in the bag already (too early to know for sure but the signs are good) for Nintendo and the US and European markets are encouraging to say the least.

NO i think this is VERY possible, though this analysis comes from the same company that predicted that the ps3 would win not to many months ago even though they also predicted sony would lose several billion dollars from the ps3 over 5 years.

You' d have to be delusional to think the Wii has the potential to go further then the PS2. Doesn' t the ps2 have about 100 million worldwide, to think that the Wii can do that only in the US is just stupid. Wii won' t even match the PS2 let alone surpass it only through one country. These analysts must be under Nintendo' s pockets, either that or they have been breathing too much Ether.

Analysts are all full of crap. The fact that all of them have very conflicting predictions is testament to this. Some proclaim 360 the winner, others the PS3, Wii, etc.

I tend to group analysts in the same category as gypsies, seers, fortune tellers and the government.

Agent ghost they said up to one third of ' homes' , not of the entire US population.

He told the UK-based business daily that he expects the console, which has appealed to non-gamers via its motion-sensing capabilities, to be in 30 percent of US homes by 2011. In Japan, Kinoshita expects a full third of households to have the machine in four years

THe population of the US is around 300 million, with an average of around 3 people per household meaning around 100 million HOUSEHOLDS, one third of that is around 33 million. So that is entirely possible.

note i just realised that the topic which i just cut and pasted from the website did not mention ' homes' , i have since corrected it.

Analysts also said that the GCN would surpass Xbox & meet PS2 sales. Between everybody here, we could come up with a more accurate prediction.

THe population of the US is around 300 million, with an average of around 3 people per household meaning around 100 million HOUSEHOLDS, one third of that is around 33 million. So that is entirely possible.

note i just realised that the topic which i just cut and pasted from the website did not mention ' homes' , i have since corrected it.

Oh, that' s a different story. In this case I' m not sure, it could happen but that number still seems far fetched.

The thing is about these analysts, is that they' re full of shit. They can pretty much say what they want as long as their prediction is about a time period far enough that no one will remember their predictions once we reach 4-6 years form now. I certainly don' t remember what they said about 2007 five years ago, whatever it was I' m sure it' s not even close. No one could have predicted the specifics that are going on now in the videogame industry. I' ll bet you, I' ll fucking bet you that even in this age of information where you can learn anything over the net, in 2011 no one here will remember this prediction. And even if someone here does you won' t remember me saying this. Then again someone here might just dig up this post just to spite me and for a laugh come 2011.


Anyways I' m talking out of my ass, hey, maybe I should be an analyst. Nah, I just need Psychiatric help.

lol, that last bit of your post made me laugh Agent. Anyhow, I mean, it' s possible the Wii will sell that much, but a lot of things are possible, but don' t end up happening. I mean, it' s possible for me to have a menage-a-tois with some beautiful women tonight(I can' t speak french, sue me) but it is pretty freakin unlikely.

The thing is, the Wii is gonna need some damned good games to keep selling strong 2 to 3 years from now. After all, the graphics are already old by todays standards, and it' s basically brand new. In 3 years time, the Xbox360 will be fully maxxing out its potential, and hopefully the same will go for the ps3, and we will be seeing some really great looking games, not to mention how far ahead PC hardware will be by that time(Crytek will be developing a new engine by then most likely). I know, graphics aren' t everything, but there is a point at which you can' t completely ignore outdated graphics on a brand new game. 2d games, like NES, SNES, Turbo Graffix, Sega MS and Genesis will always be timeless. However for me, there aren' t nearly as many 3d games that I could easily go back to without getting annoyed by the jerkiness and harsh rendering.

I' m putting to much effort into analyzing a ridiculous claim by an analyst though, so as UnluckyOne said

Some proclaim 360 the winner, others the PS3, Wii, etc

we really can' t put much faith in what they say.

Thats the point. I don' t think much of analysts either. Merril Lynch originally predicted that the ps3 would win before it launched, and know it has, and they have seen the Wii do very well they are now changing there prediction. Pretty stupid if you ask me.

I never thought the Wii would be as successful as it is now so i guess anything is possible, if a 6 year old ps2 can still out sell the powerful ps3 and 360 then the Wii does have a good chance of lasting alongside these powerhouses. The power HD graphics has not silenced the ps2 and i don' t think it will, the only thing that can silence the ps2 is the Wii, once things really get going for it (flood of games).

All the Wii needs to do is emulate the success of the ps2 (and the DS), thats all, and look how far it took that console - 6+ years old and still going strong.

Americans are fat* and wants to lose weight. Research has recently proved that playing the Wii for 12 hours a week will make you lose 12kg per year. No I am not joking, they actually have done such research. The Wii makes you 40% more active than ordinary consoles.
Once Nintendo starts marketing the Wii as something you can lose weight with it will end up in every single american household.

(*they are unhealthy and fat but som studies have shown that the average european is as fat, or even fatter, than the average american. UK kinda tops the fatty charts in europe)

I just figured out what i want to be when i grow up. I wanna be an analyst. It' s got to be easy as hell. Just sit back, pull some numbers out of my ass and collect a paycheck.
Honestly, it' s wayyyyyy too early for anybody to be predicting percentages of american households. The damn things just launched, and technology is just too unpredictable. Too many what if' s. Something as small as one significant title could throw everyone' s predictions in the toilet.

Yeah, what the analyst says is entirely plausible, but that could be said about anybody' s speculation at this point. Analyst or not.